Spot market transactions were sluggish. Post-holiday caution against the drag of ample supply on lead price trends [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes]

Futures:

Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,009.5/mt, touched a low of $2,007/mt during the Asian session and fluctuated upward, reaching a high of $2,030/mt. Entering the European session, LME lead fluctuated downward, and saw a slight rebound at the tail of the session, finally closing at $2,024.5/mt, up $15.5/mt or 0.77%. It recorded a four-day winning streak.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2602 contract opened at 17,490 yuan/mt, touched a high of 17,505 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session. Affected by long position reductions, SHFE lead fluctuated downward all the way, touching a low of 17,330 yuan/mt, and fluctuated rangebound at the tail of the session, finally closing at 17,365 yuan/mt, down 140 yuan/mt or 0.80%. It ended a six-day winning streak and formed a small bearish candlestick.

On the Macro Front:

US Fed meeting minutes: Officials had serious disagreements, and most believed that interest rates could be lowered as inflation declines. OPEC representative: OPEC+ is expected to continue to suspend the crude oil production increase plan. China's Ministry of Commerce and seven other departments issued the "2026 Automobile Trade-in Subsidy Implementation Rules". "National subsidies" continue: The 2026 optimized implementation plan for the program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins was released. The "Regulations for the Implementation of the Value-Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China" were announced and will take effect on January 1, 2026.

:

SHFE lead touched lows and then rebounded yesterday morning. However, as most traders cleared inventories and closed accounts at year-end, quotations in the primary lead market were scarce, with only a few traders quoting according to the market. The mainstream spot order quotations for secondary refined lead with tax were at premiums of -150~0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, and the mainstream tax-excluded refined lead ex-works quotations were around 15,950 yuan/mt. Downstream enterprises were in the year-end inventory counting state. Apart from cargo pick-up under long-term contracts, spot order purchasing by other enterprises generally decreased. Furthermore, due to the pullback in lead prices, a few small and medium-sized enterprises purchased as needed, and transactions in the spot market were sluggish.

Inventory: On December 30, LME lead inventory increased by 1,000 mt to 245,275 mt. As of December 29, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions showed a downward trend.

Today's Lead Price Forecast:

As the New Year's Day holiday approaches, lead ingot suppliers' overall willingness to sell is moderate, while some secondary lead smelters temporarily halted sales due to chaotic market quotations. Some downstream battery producers suspended spot order purchasing for year-end closing and inventory counting; others showed poor buying sentiment due to lead prices fluctuating at highs. It is reported that lead ingot in-factory inventory in Central China showed an upward trend; if downstream enterprises' restocking willingness remains low after the New Year's Day holiday, be cautious about the drag of ample supply on lead price trends.

Data Source Statement: Except for public information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.